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An innovative computer-based modeling approach for rare public health emergencies
can help with disaster planning and medical response efforts in metropolitan
areas. This is according to findings published today in the American Medical
Association’s (AMA) Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness journal.
The study simulated and evaluated hypothetical malicious sarin releases in several
Manhattan locations using city demographic information and hospital resource
and public transportation system data. Results showed that an attack in Manhattan
could potentially result in up to 22,000 exposed individuals and 178 intensive
care unit admissions.
“This platform is more sophisticated than previous disaster planning
models,” said lead study author Silas Smith, M.D., Department of
Emergency Medicine, New York University School of Medicine. “City-specific
data was incorporated to study potential catastrophes and the medical and
public health consequences. Hospitals and emergency planners may be able to
better assess the effectiveness of emergency response plans and needed resources.”
The study used real data including population usage information from the major
Manhattan bus and train transportation centers. The actual number of hospital
beds and available stockpiles of medical resources from the city’s hospital
system were also considered. Other factors evaluated included emergency medical
services, hospital surge capacity, variable exposure effects and health declination,
and behavioral and psychosocial characteristics of victims.
The computer simulation model could be used to simulate various hypothetical
scenarios in metropolitan cities across the United States, and used to help
improve our nation’s disaster preparedness.
Follow the AMA Disaster Medicine and Public Health journal and other AMA news
on Twitter.
About the American Medical Association
The American Medical Association helps doctors help patients by uniting physicians
nationwide to work on the most important professional and public health issues.
Working together, the AMA's quarter of a million physician and medical student
members are playing an active role in shaping the future of medicine. For
more information on the AMA, please visit www.ama-assn.org.
News is included on the IvyRose website to inform visitors about current health
issues, but not to endorse any particular view or activity. Any views expressed
in the article above are not necessarily those of IvyRose Ltd.. Material in
this news item was released by the American Medical Association (AMA) on 3
June 2009 and may have been edited (e.g. in style,
length, and/or for ease of understanding by our international readers) for inclusion
here. For further information, please visit their website.
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